Mozzie: a computationally efficient simulator for the spatio-temporal modelling of mosquitoes
Mozzie: a computationally efficient simulator for the spatio-temporal modelling of mosquitoes
Tags: Anopheles, Modeling, Mosquitoes, Risk assessmentWilkins et al., Journal of Open Source Software, 10. 2025.
Mozzie enables simulation of the lifecycle and spatial spread of mosquitoes. Mozzie can be used to assess risks associated with disease-control strategies at local, regional or continental scales. Most particularly, strategies involving genetic alterations of mosquitoes to eliminate malaria, are of prime interest. More technically, Mozzie simulates a population-dynamics model that uses differential equations or delay differential equations (Bohner et al., 2018; El-Hachem & Beeton, 2024) to describe the spread and persistence of mosquitoes that may be genetically altered. Genetic alterations are flexibly modelled: these can involve any number of alleles; Mendelian or non-Mendelian inheritance, including gene drives; they can be self-limiting or self-sustaining; and can include the emergence of resistant allelles. The model allows simulation of 𝑁 mosquito species. It incorporates mate-choice, hybridisation and intra-specific competition that occur within complexes of mosquito species (Beeton et al., 2020). This fills a gap that currently exists among similar models, allowing researchers to assess potential transfer of the genetic alterations between (sub-)species.
Mozzie supports spatial and temporal variations in lifecyle parameters, and local diffusion andwind-assisted, long range, advection. For example, wind patterns and the capacity of the landscape to support mosquitoes can vary spatially and temporally, reflecting daily variations, seasonality, and local conditions. Conversely, Mozzie does not contain human agents, nor does it consider the effect of genetic control strategies on the prevalence of pathogens such as the malaria parasite, among human or animal populations. Mozzie has been used by the authors to simulate the spread across sub-Saharan Africa of a theoretical, population-modifying, gene drive in Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles coluzzii (Beeton et al., 2022) (that paper also describes the mathematics of a particular mosquito lifecycle model that is contained in Mozzie). It has also been used to predict the spread of Target Malaria’s Paternal Male Bias construct (Galizi et al., 2014) following a proposed field-release of genetically modified Anopheles coluzzi male mosquitoes in Burkina Faso (Hosack et al., 2023).
